## Tuesday, November 11, 2008

### Gabonomics!

I thought it would be interesting to see if the numbers have changed at all over the last couple weeks.

Reminder: this is a HIGHLY SCIENTIFIC measure of Marian Gaborik's "current market value", designed by LEADING MATHEMATICIANS, STATISTICIANS, ASSORTED PhDs and using various proprietary formulae. While not designed to predict or depict the ultimate value of his next contract, Gabonomics should give the casual hockey fan an idea of just what Gaborik and his agent should expect to receive based on his current career-to-date performance.

*Baseline (salary) \$7.5M (T11th in NHL)
*Baseline (cap hit) \$6.33M (28th in NHL)
*Ceiling (salary) \$10M (Lecavalier)
*Ceiling (cap hit) \$9.538M (Ovechkin)
*Career points-per-game (reg season, through end 07-08): GP 487, pts 415, PPG 0.852
*Projected points per full season (PFS) (career PPG x 82): 69.86
*Injury probability (reg season): 100 games missed out of 7.158 NHL seasons (587 games) = 13.97 games missed per season or a 17% chance that he will be injured for a given game.
*Projected points per full Gaborik season (PGS) (PPG * (82-13.97)) = 57.96

(1) Given that Gaborik is not worth more than Lecavalier, Ovechkin, Crosby or Malkin. Therefore his salary should not exceed the lowest of those players, or \$9M (09-10 salary figures). Action: reduce effective ceiling from \$10M to \$9M.

(2) Given that inflation has occurred in NHL since his last contract was signed. The salary cap increased by 12.7% from 07-08 to 08-09. Gaborik's salary of \$7.5M (08-09) should therefore be able to increase in keeping with that inflationary level. Action: increase effective baseline from \$7.5M to \$8.45M.

(3) Production adjustment. Gaborik has one point in two games this season. This brings his career PPG down to 0.852. It also reduces his projected PFS to 69.86. However, his PGS is now at 57.96, or 82.9% of his PFS. Action: reduce effective baseline by half* of the difference between PGS and PFS ((PFS - PGS) * (17.1% / 2)) from \$8.45M to \$7.73M.

(3.1) Injury watch. Gaborik has missed 11 games this season. At the start of this season, his career games-missed per season was 12.71. Should he exceed his average games-missed per season his ceiling will also need to be lowered. Action: maintain effective ceiling at \$9M, understanding that this will come under pressure if he misses at least two more games.

Conclusion: Marian Gaborik's current annual salary range is \$7.73M to \$9M. Over a 6-year deal that means guaranteed money of \$46.38Mto \$54M. Over a 7-year deal that means guaranteed money of \$54.11M to \$63M. Over an 8-year deal that means guaranteed money of \$61.84M to \$72M.

*The panel decided to reduce the baseline by half of the difference between PGS and PFS because they did not feel that Gaborik's injury status this year should completely counteract his injury history over his seven complete seasons.

Anonymous said...

that was a lot of math for what I think we new any way.

Anonymous said...

*knew anyway