Sunday, October 12, 2008

Gabonomics!

Presenting Gabonomics!

This is a HIGHLY SCIENTIFIC measure of Marian Gaborik's "current market value", designed by LEADING MATHEMATICIANS, STATISTICIANS, ASSORTED PhDs and using various proprietary formulae. While not designed to predict or depict the ultimate value of his next contract, Gabonomics should give the casual hockey fan an idea of just what Gaborik and his agent should expect to receive based on his current career-to-date performance.

*Baseline (salary) $7.5M (T11th in NHL)
*Baseline (cap hit) $6.33M (28th in NHL)
*Ceiling (salary) $10M (Lecavalier)
*Ceiling (cap hit) $9.538M (Ovechkin)
*Career points-per-game (reg season, through end 07-08): GP 485, pts 414, PPG 0.853
*Projected points per season (career PPG x 82): 69.99
*Injury probability (reg season): 89 games missed out of 7 NHL seasons (574 games) = 15.5 games missed per season or a 18.9% chance that he will be injured for a given game.

1. Given that Gaborik is not worth more than Lecavalier, Ovechkin, Crosby or Malkin. Therefore his salary should not exceed the lowest of those players, or $9M (09-10 salary figures). Action: reduce effective ceiling from $10M to $9M.

2. Given that inflation has occurred in NHL since his last contract was signed. The salary cap increased by 12.7% from 07-08 to 08-09. Gaborik's salary of $7.5M (08-09) should therefore be able to increase in keeping with that inflationary level. Action: increase effective baseline from $7.5M to $8.45M.

3. Production adjustment. Gaborik was scoreless in his first game of the 08-09 season. This brings his career PPG down to 0.852. It also reduces his projected points per season to 69.01, or 98.6% of the full 82-game projected amount. Action: reduce effective ceiling by 1.14% from $9M to $8.874M.

Conclusion: Marian Gaborik's "current market value" salary range is $8.45M to $8.874M. Guaranteed money of $76.05M to $79.866M over 9 years. Guaranteed money of $84.5M to $88.7M over 10 years.

5 comments:

Ms. Conduct said...

Ah, you math people. Good stuff.

Kevin Jacobsen said...

And you said you had no time for fun! Doesn't get much more fun than math...

*rolls eyes*

;)

Anonymous said...

I don't think it's money preventing Gabby from signing. Now if you could project #10's numbers based on the different coaches he might sign with I'd be interested in that.

Cortney said...

Wow...sounds pretty scientific. Looking at how much money he will make over 10 years kind of makes me sick to my stomach.

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