Wednesday, November 19, 2008

You Know What I'm Tired Of?

I'm tired of hearing about Gaborik the sniper. Snipers score goals. Gaborik has scored 207 goals in 487 regular season games played. That's 0.43 goals per game, or 34.85 goals per 82 games. Gaborik has missed 103 regular season games out of the 590 games he could have played in. That means that Gaborik has missed 14.31 games per the 7.195 (82-game) seasons he's been in the league for.

So his goals per 82 games - his injury probability

((0.43*82) - (82-14.31)) = 28.77

That's hardly sniper-caliber.

But even that goals per 82 games (34.85) isn't all that great. Looking back at the post-lockout seasons (05-06 through 07-08), the guys that scored 34 goals per season have ranked 21st overall (Marleau, McDonald, Rolston and Knuble in 05-06), 23rd overall (Spezza, Cammalleri, Huselius and Pominville in 06-07) and 16th overall (Spezza and Jokinen in 07-08) in goal scoring in the league.

What's worse? Look at the current cap hit for those players:

Spezza $7M, 13th in the league
Marleau $6.3M, 29th
Jokinen $5.25M, 54th
Rolston $5.06M, 60th
Huselius $4.75M, 72nd
Cammalleri $3.35M, 182nd
McDonald $3.33M, 184th
Knuble $2.8M, 222nd
Pominville $1.03M, 440th

Now obviously Gaborik's not going to take a pay CUT with his next contract. But, at a current cap hit of $6.33M, it would appear by the statistical company that he keeps that he really shouldn't be expecting that much of a raise, either.

Gaborik really isn't an upper echelon goal scorer. He's an upper echelon goal scorer on the Wild roster. But that's not saying much.

NiNY

5 comments:

Ryan said...

Someone on ESPN was speculating that the Sens should trade Spezza for Gabby straight up. I would take that in a heart beat. Seriously, it would be the best thing DR has ever done. Put b-b-b-benny at wing permanently, and we have two top centers.

Ryan said...

...but then again, that trade only happens in dream land.

WRT - Wild Road Tripper said...

Anyone would be crazy to trade for Gaborik right now. It wouldn't surprise me if Gaby is actually pulling an NFL-esque 'hold out', acting as if he wants to be traded no matter what. he may actually BE injured, and then again, he may not.

Every game the Wild win while Gaby does not play undermines Gaby's position just that little bit more.

And that is just fine with me.

Cortney said...

Ahhh I agree with Ryan - Gaborik for Spezza in a heartbeat. I had some witty comment to add...but it sounded better in my head than on the screen. So I'll leave it out.

the Cunning Linguist said...

Crazy like a fox... We'll give you Alex Burrows and a bag of pucks for Gabby.

Whaddya mean no? That trade happens all the time in MY dream land... ;)