I
use the term "Quickie" in context of how long it will take to read
this. Anyhow, based on previous years' data, I set out to determine the
probability of a team moving up or down in the draft. The first column
shows the rank of the team in overall league standings. The second
column is the odds of winning the draft lottery and moving up 4 spaces.
The remaining columns show the probability of getting the pick shown
above. For example, the 20th place team, currently the Jets, would have a
1.5% chance of moving up in the draft, and 2.4% chance of moving down.
The remaining 96.1% is the chance that they don't move up or down.
Capisce? Well I think you do 'cause I ain't gonna repeat myself.
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14
#30 25.0 48.2 51.8
#29 18.8 18.8 42.0 39.2
#28 14.2 14.2 56.1 29.7
#27 10.7 10.7 66.7 22.6
#26 8.1 8.1 74.7 17.2
#25 6.2 6.2 80.7 13.1
#24 4.7 4.7 90.1 9.9
#23 3.6 3.6 89.0 7.4
#22 2.7 2.7 91.8 5.5
#21 2.1 2.1 94.0 3.9
#20 1.5 1.5 96.1 2.4
#19 1.1 1.1 97.6 1.3
#18 0.8 0.8 98.7 0.5
#17 0.5 0.5 99.5
Currently,
the 30th place team is Columbus, 29th is Edmonton, and 28th is
Minnesota. Montreal and the Islanders round out the bottom 5 bottom
feeders. But the Wild have 2 games "in hand" on the Habs and 1 game "in
hand" on the Islanders. Whether the Wild have played fewer games is good
for them or better for the Habs and Isles is another debate. The upshot
for Wild fans is that as it stands now, they'd get the first, third or
fourth pick.
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